Buffalo Grove, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

265
FXUS63 KLOT 161733
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1133 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures through Thursday, with record
  warmth likely today.

- Scattered showers and a low chance (20%) of thunderstorms
  early Wednesday morning.

- Elevated fire danger Wednesday with westerly winds gusting to
  30-40 mph.

- Additional rain chances Thursday night/Friday morning and
  possible rain/snow chances Friday night/Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

In the near term, early this morning, we continue to monitor
fog trends across central IL into IN. However, as of this
writing, the web cams and surface observations across my south
do not currently support the need for a Dense Fog Advisory.
This may change over the the next few hours as lower-level
moisture continues to ease northward from central IL into
portions of east central IL and northwestern IN. The main
uncertainty at this point is how widespread any dense fog may
become into my southern areas early this morning, owing to
increasing low-level southwesterly flow toward daybreak and the
presence of higher level cloud cover streaming over the region.
For this reason, we will continue to monitor observational
trends early this morning before locking into a Dense Fog
Advisory.

A breezy day is expected today as diurnal mixing into the
increasing southwesterly low-level flow will support numerous
gusts of 25 to 30 mph through the afternoon. While cloud cover
will linger over the area this morning, we should see more
sunshine this afternoon, which should allow temperatures to
become unseasonably warm, into the low to mid 60s. This is
expected to break the record high temperature for today (the
16th) at both Chicago and Rockford, which currently stand at 58
and 57 degrees (both set in 1921), respectively.

A weak cold frontal boundary is expected to sag southward into
far northern IL and northwestern IN this evening, before
stalling near the I-80 corridor tonight into Tuesday. East-
southeasterly winds setting up near and north of this frontal
boundary for Tuesday will result in much cooler temperatures
(low to mid 40s) near the northeastern IL Lake Michigan
lakeshore on Tuesday. Conversely, interior sections of northern
IL and northwestern IN should again experience temperatures
topping out well into the 50s to around 60.

The weather will turn a bit more active for the remainder of
the week as two notable low pressure weather systems take aim on
the region. The first of these will track eastward from the
northern Plains out across the upper Midwest Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a weakening northwest-to-southeast oriented area of
low pressure. This will result in our next chance of showers
(and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm) Tuesday night. There does
continue to be some uncertainty in the coverage of showers with
this system Tuesday night. In spite of this, there is a short
period overnight in which the exit region of a 140 kt upper
level jet streak will nose into northeastern IL. Dynamically,
this is favorable for the short period of likely (60%+ chance)
POPs going in the current forecast late Tuesday night.
Steepening mid-level lapse rates also could support a few
elevated late night storms.

Conditions will dry out considerably and become windy during
the day Wednesday following an eastward surging frontal
boundary. Dewpoints in the wake of this boundary are likely to
fall into the 20s to the low 30s as surface temperatures
efficiently warm into the mid 60s during peak afternoon mixing.
This adds increasing fire weather concerns for Wednesday, owing
to minimum RH percentage values likely falling into 20s amidst
gusty westerly winds of 30-40 mph.

Ensemble guidance continues to support another storm system
tracking eastward across the central part of the country
somewhere into our region late Thursday into Friday. There
remains quite a bit of uncertainty with this system, owing to
large ensemble spread at this time range. Nevertheless, chances
continue to increase in our next period of showers, and maybe a
period of isolated thunderstorms, Thursday night into early
Friday. Blended pops are now into the 60-70 percent range and
that seems reasonable from this distance.

Beyond this time period, the overall trend looks colder with
perhaps below normal temps by early next week. The transition to
this colder pattern will also support some possibly of snow in
the region.

KJB

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Southwest winds will gust 25-30kt through daylight hours amidst
an unseasonably warm and spring-like day. A few high clouds will
stream overhead during daylight hours.

Tonight, a weak frontal boundary will slip southward through
the Lower Great Lakes and stall somewhere in the vicinity of
RFD/DPA/ORD/MDW. Winds near/behind the front will become nearly
variable, though perhaps favor a modestly east-southeasterly
direction. With the low-level pressure gradient relaxing locally
overnight, do believe pockets of fog may develop particularly
toward daybreak near and especially behind the front, especially
if flow is modestly stronger than currently expected and advects
relatively moist air inland off Lake Michigan. Then again, the
low-level flow may be just strong enough to favor a low-level
stratus deck instead of fog. All things considered, will go
ahead and maintain 6SM BR SCT003 at MDW/ORD/DPA, and introduce a
TEMPO at RFD for 1SM BKN002 at RFD, altogether centered during
the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.

Low-level flow will pick up out of the south-southeast mid-
Tuesday morning and erode any lingering stratus and/or fog.
Upper-level clouds will then thicken in advance of an
approaching storm system.

Borchardt

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 913 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Record warmth is forecast on Monday February 16th, with highs
into the 60s.

Here are the current record highs for February 15th for Chicago
and Rockford:

Chicago: 58 degrees in 1921
Rockford: 57 degrees in 1921

NWS Chicago

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the IL
     and IN nearshore waters.

&&

$$

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